“Much Ado About Nothing”
It’s been over a year of media focus on the potential end of historically low levels of Canadian interest rates. This week, it might be appropriate to quote the words of Mr. William Shakespeare, much ado about nothing, as the Bank of Canada recently decided to increase the Bank Rate by only 0.25%.
This increase was probably the single most anticipated and talked about increase ever witnessed in Canadian history. Many people originally anticipated a full half percentage increase, but recently almost every financial analyst expected the 0.25% increase that raised the prime rate at most Canadian banks to 2.5%.
Had Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, failed to raise rates this would have caused more of a concern as financial markets want certainty and predictability. After months and months of dealing with mortgage client’s concerns, this increase simply became a non-event. It was also very interesting to note that some mortgage lenders actually decreased their five-year mortgage rates shortly after the Bank of Canada rate announcement. Financial Institutions need to have certainty established in the long term trend of market interest rates before they can become truly competitive in their mortgage rate pricing.
In contrast to Mr. Shakespeare’s play, Much Ado About Nothing, which is a comedy, the Bank of Canada’s decision on interest rates is very serious business that effects a great cross section of our society. From small home based businesses to the construction industry and manufacturing firms, all feel the effects of the Bank’s Canadian Interest Rate Policy. Along with the value of our Canadian dollar, our Canadian family standard of living is affected too. The Bank of Canada is very aware of this fact as they attempt to balance the need to fight inflation while at the same time trying to grow our economy.
The bottom line looking forward is that we are going to see a slow and gradual increase in interest rates and this should not be a surprise to anyone. For clients still on floating rate mortgages, this may be a good opportunity to consider increasing your mortgage payment thereby accelerating your repayment and decreasing the amortization on your mortgage. This would also prepare you for slightly higher interest rates in the future while at the same time taking advantage of our still very low mortgage interest rates.
Paul E. Croy
A Shoe Short Story
My wife truly loves a good pair of shoes. Over the years she has built a fine collection of well over 100 shoes; I’m sure that there are much larger collections hidden away in other people’s home closets! The interesting point is that as much as she may love the look of shoes, her daily choice selection is normally based on comfort.
For most people, getting into a mortgage is much easier than getting out of it if they find that they have made the wrong choice. Making the wrong choice can be a source of stress with potentially large financial and emotional costs to be paid. The mortgage you select should be comfortable and flexible, fitting with your lifestyle expectations. It is very important that your mortgage leaves some financial room for you to still be able to enjoy the things in life that are important to you. Feeling ‘mortgage poor’ can be somewhat like being forced to walk a long distance in the wrong pair of shoes.
It is important to spend time up front looking at the economic realities of your cash flow prior signing your mortgage documents.
What I would recommend for many clients is to try living within a budget based on the proposed mortgage payment prior to committing to it.
Paul Croy
Interest Rates on the Rise?
The Bank of Canada has signaled that they do not expect to hold present interest rate levels past the end of June…..
See the March 11, 2010, Business Week article, Canada January New Home Prices Rise 0.4%, Seventh Straight Gain
We are presently enjoying the lowest interest rates seen since the Korean War, and the only thing we can absolutely count on is that rates will inevitably rise. The ‘experts’ cannot seem to agree on when or by how much, but the varied opinions range upwards to an increase of 2.0% – 2.5% by the end of 2011.
I believe that now is the time to become pro-active and ensure that you take advantage of the present interest rate environment. Do you wish to explore the possibility of ‘renegotiating’ an existing mortgage? Would you like to ‘lock-in’ an interest rate for an upcoming purchase? Does your mortgage ‘mature’ in the next few months? Fixed rate vs. variable rate?
Our mortgage professionals are your best source for mortgage advice and can explain all your available options.
Walt Neufeld
Changes to Lending Guidelines for Insured Products
Jim Flaherty, Canada’s Minister of Finance, announced new lending guidelines for Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) backed mortgage loans in a recent announcement.
The new rules are as follows:
1. All borrowers must qualify for a mortgage using the five year fixed rate regardless of the term chosen.
2. When refinancing a home, Canadians will only be able to refinance up to 90% of the value instead of the previous 95%.
3. If you want to purchase revenue property CMHC will no longer insure you. You’ll need to put 20% down to take out a conventional mortgage.
These changes will take effect April 19, 2010.
What does this mean to the consumer who is presently trying to qualify for the maximum mortgage amount? I would recommend putting your plans in motion for purchase or refinance before the rapidly approaching deadline.
See the Government of Canada Department of Finance website for more details
Chris Pahl
Interesting Times for Canadian Mortgage Borrowers
Those of us who have been working in the mortgage industry for more than just a few years will agree that these are most interesting times. Borrowers who took advantage of variable rate mortgage offerings a few years back are now confronted with the hard question, “Do I look at locking into a fixed longer term mortgage or do I continue to “float” at a deeply discounted interest rate?” The one thing that I have learned about this business is that there is nothing more constant than change. Rates go up and rates go down. Rate volatility can happen for many reasons and some times not for the reasons a borrower expects, like a tight supply of mortgage funds or a Financial Institution’s Fund Matching requirements.
I agree that there are many economic reasons not to expect large increases in Canadian Mortgage Interest rates in the near future. However, based on the Bank of Canada’s position calling for an increase to the prime rate starting this summer, current mortgage underwriting guidelines that get less flexible every day, plus a recent trend that shows an increase in the 5 to 10 year Canadian Government Bond Rates, it may now be time to take a hard, honest look at the affordability issue of mortgage payments.
If interest rate were to jump 1%, 2% or 3%, would you still be comfortable with your shelter costs? Always remember that we are dealing with historically low mortgage interest rates. Some lenders offer the option of a split mortgage term. This permits a mortgagor to leave a portion of their mortgage floating while at the same time locking in a portion at a fixed longer term. This may well be a product that borrowers will start to embrace as a prudent option over the coming months.
Paul Croy
Balance in the Canadian Housing Market?
There was an interesting article written by The Canadian Press (posted February 17, 2010) regarding the Canadian real estate market. Victoria, Vancouver Island & BC are different ‘cups of tea’, but I certainly think that our market IS becoming more balanced and that anticipated, and coming, changes in ‘qualification criteria’ for ‘insured’ mortgages will actually assist in stabilizing our market.
The HST will certainly impact sales of homes priced at the mid – high end of our marketplace, but should not slow ‘entry level’ sales. Entry level sales inevitably drive the rest of the market so….. I am cautiously optimistic regarding our real estate market!
My thoughts on when / how higher interest rates will affect us is another matter… for another day.
TGIF… Go Canada!
Walt
